HIP-4 outcome quality
Read probability microstructure, liquidity, freshness, parity, calibration, and settlement quality without side-direction instructions.
Outcomes
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Current
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Stale
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Degraded
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Unsupported
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Outcome market list
A scannable queue of active outcomes with quality score, category posture, freshness, and null states visible before detail metrics.
State vocabulary
Public row states stay visible before interpretation.
Market is still live; probability reads require freshness, liquidity, and event-definition context.
Resolution is known; panels emphasize settlement provenance, calibration inclusion, and correction history.
Resolution or source interpretation is contested; confidence copy becomes degraded until the dispute state clears.
Market no longer has normal terminal payoff semantics; score and calibration panels explain exclusion.
Registry or side-feed observations are older than the rendered freshness window.
Event category, market class, or payload shape is not eligible for public rendering.
Displayed probability has limited nearby depth, so panels emphasize spread and impact diagnostics.
Pro outcome research
Probability depth, parity, entropy, event gamma, calibration history, settlement quality, and opportunity-cost tradeoff panels stay gated until their launch gates pass.
How quickly does displayed probability move under hypothetical size?
Do YES and NO sides behave like complementary claims after friction?
Is uncertainty resolving smoothly or changing abruptly?
How sensitive is probability near the event boundary?
What does this bounded exposure cost relative to other capital uses?
Are rule clarity, source freshness, and label history strong enough to interpret resolution?
How well have similar resolved markets mapped displayed probability to realized outcomes?